We’re a research group based out of Carnegie Mellon University dedicated to developing the theory and practice of epidemic tracking and forecasting. Pre-pandemic we worked mostly on influenza, dengue and norovirus; we’ve now picked up a focus on COVID. We procure unique data streams that reflect epidemic (or pandemic) activity, extract relevant indicators, and make these publicly and continuously available. We and others then use these indicators for nowcasting (situational awareness) and short-term forecasting.
Public health authorities (federal, state, local), the healthcare industry, the public and private sectors, fellow researchers working on epidemic tracking and forecasting, data journalists, and the general public.
In reverse chronological order.
April 2020. We began supporting and advising the U.S. CDC’s community-driven COVID-19 forecasting effort, including creating and maintaining an ensemble forecast from the models submitted to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub, and a forecast evaluation dashboard.
March 2020. We launched COVIDcast, the nation’s largest public repository of diverse, real-time indicators of COVID-19 activity, freely accessible through the Epidata API, which is updated daily with the latest data.
2019. We became a CDC National Center of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting, one of two nationally (and a 5-year designation).
2016. We developed and deployed influenza nowcasts for the CDC, state departments of public health, and the public.
2016. We developed and deployed the Epidata API, which provides real-time access to epidemiological surveillance data.
2013. We began supporting the U.S. CDC’s Influenza Division in advancing and growing a scientific community around influenza forecasting. We’ve been perennial leaders in forecasting accuracy ever since.
We're grateful for financial and other support from our collaborators and supporters: